September Sales: Slow, Steady Growth Led By Trucks, Crossovers

General Motors, Chrysler LLC and Nissan each increased sales by at least one-fifth when compared with September 2010, though the industry looks good mostly when compared with last year. Thanks to their financial problems, GM and Chrysler took bigger hits than the rest of the industry the past few years.
On Monday, Ford and Toyota estimated a low-13 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), while GM estimated a number in the high 12s.

The automakers face slow growth rather than a double-dip recession, says GM sales veep Don Johnson. The auto industry remains a bright spot in consumer demand because a lot of buyers are replacing aging cars. Not to mention (as no one did) cars and trucks coming off three-year leases from the beginning of the recession with stickers higher than their owners could afford.
Pickup trucks had a good month at the Detroit Three. GM trucks were up 34.3 percent, with the Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra selling 57,602 combined. With heavy advertising and incentives, GM expects to have its truck inventory back down to a 90-day supply, or 200,000 units, by the end of the year.
Ford sold 54,410 F-Series, and Chrysler sold 24,522 Ram pickups, helping it edge past Toyota Motor Sales, which remained beset with supply problems related to the March earthquake and tsunami in Japan.
Ford’s utilities were up 35 percent overall in September ’11, versus September ’10, led by the aged Escape and the new Explorer. As for pickups, strong sales to small businesses and contractors have helped, though certainly there can’t be too much demand resulting from home construction and repair.
The 20k+ Ford Escape sales are puzzling. The much newer Chevy Equinox also continues to sell well, but it needs to be combined with GMC Terrain sales to better the Ford.
While GM’s Chevy Cruze again led compact sales last month, its soon-to-be-replaced Malibu took a dive. Meanwhile, the new Ford Focus missed the top five in compact sales, while its soon-to-be-replaced Fusion was the third-bestselling midsize sedan. Ford blames short supply of the ’12 Focus, which launched in March. Last month, Ford said a large portion of its 14,093 Focus sales in August were of the new model. Could it be that many buyers are willing to spend a couple of dollars more per month to buy a Fusion, especially as gasoline prices have come down below $3.50 per gallon in September?

October 2011 Sales: VW, Chrysler Up Big as Market Levels

It was a good month despite the numbers. Automakers said October’s Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) was the best of the year, at roughly 13.5 million including medium- and heavy-duty trucks, up from 13.2 million in September. Ford and GM cited somewhat encouraging job growth and looser credit for stronger sales.

It’s like malaise; only it looks pretty good next to 2008.

That means that seasonally, Octobers never are terribly good for selling cars and trucks. Another anomaly is that General Motors’ sales rose just 2 percent, though the automaker held on to its 19.4 percent market share, which is up roughly one point for the year to date.
This is the type of confusion car sales numbers cause. That 2 percent increase compares October 2011 with October 2010, of course, and SAAR numbers don’t really mean anything by the time you get actual annual numbers.
What the GM numbers mean is that GM has found its natural level, just under 20 percent share. Chevy sales were up slightly while every other division was off slightly. Buick, for one, ended a long streak of year-over-year gains as it sold down the last of its outdated products, the Lucerne, and built on the Enclave, LaCrosse and Regal. GM says Cadillac struggled amidst a strong product and marketing attack from BMW.
Other news outlets have trumpeted Chrysler Group’s “sensational” 27 percent sales hike, but that’s compared with a very lean 2010 number. Last year, Chrysler was slowly getting back on its feet and trying to hang on to a base number of sales as it got production levels back up. Most of its new or refreshed product was still a month or more off. A 27 percent hike looks good until you consider that Chrysler was the number-five automaker in October ’10, somehow keeping ahead of Honda last year.
That’s not to detract from Chrysler’s success this year. It has managed to reach a five-figure number for its midsize Chrysler 200, and Jeep and Ram pickup sales are strong. You’re getting a pretty good indication of how well the top six or seven automakers will do going forward, though Honda will continue to have shortages because of the Thai floods. Hyundai and Kia will continue to eat into competitors’ market share, and based on a strong start-of-production month for the VW Passat, I think that car could get into the top-five list of midsize cars. Which midsize will it dethrone?

November 2011 Sales: Healthy Gains as Industry Heads to a 13 Million Year

The U.S. first reached car and light truck sales of 15 million back in calendar 1965, when baby boomers bought boatloads of Ford Mustangs and their parents bought a million Chevy Impalas, Belairs and Biscaynes. That number remains elusive in today’s market. November 2011 sales totaled about 1 million — good for a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate of nearly 14 million. By the time December sales come in just after New Years, we’ll have bought nearly 13 million cars and light- and medium-duty trucks in 2011, which is at the low end of predictions General Motors, Ford, and most analysts made a year ago.
In the year-to-date, a few trends have emerged. First, the average middle-class buyer is sticking with midsize cars, and cross-shopping them against compact crossovers like the Honda CR-V, Toyota RAV4, Ford Escape and Chevrolet Equinox. That’s the talk over at Ford these days, and it makes sense. Middle-class Western Europeans scoop up four-door Volkswagen Golf hatchbacks because they offer versatility and enough space for a family of four, at a relatively low purchase price with decent fuel mileage (especially the diesels). We don’t buy hatchbacks here, unless they’re Mini Coopers or Toyota Priuses, but compact two-row crossovers offer all that versatility, enough room for a family of four and gas mileage that can seep into the low 30s if you get the four-cylinder and front-wheel-drive.
If you used a second mortgage to buy a Chevy Tahoe and a Toyota Camry five or eight years ago, or you’re coming off a three-year lease, you might find one of these compact CUVs the best combination to handle your needs, if not your wants. Of course, that means you’re also one of the middle-class survivors of the Great Recession who still has gainful employment, and you’re watching your monthly payment.
Second, luxury brands like Mercedes-Benz and Audi are having a spectacular year. Both reported their best November U.S. sales on record. They each have a number of new models to boost sales, and I suspect we’ll see some great numbers from BMW when the new 3 Series gets into U.S. showrooms.

April 2012 Sales: The Luxury of a New Car or Truck

Has the automobile become a luxury item again, as it was more than a century ago? It’s a question I’ve been asking myself as luxury brands jumpstarted the 2008-09 financial nadir and as the premium German brands post higher sales and profits. General Motors’ Cadillac vice president, Kurt McNeil, says that luxury car sales are about 1 percent behind the rest of the revitalized industry. Cadillac is off 23.9 percent this year through April, and off 13.7 percent retail, while Buick is off 16.4 percent total, 4.9 percent retail.
Lexus sales were flat last month, compared with the post-tsunami April ’11 (though the full effects of last year’s Japanese disaster hadn’t yet hit Toyota’s lux division by that month). Lincoln sales fell 12.8 percent last month, and it’s nearly flat, too, at -0.4 percent for the year-to-date.
Meanwhile, Mercedes-Benz had its best April ever. So did Audi. BMW Group is up 13.7 percent year-to-date, with Bimmer sales up 15.7 percent and Mini up 6 percent.
Part of Cadillac’s problem is leasing. GM says 14 percent of the vehicles it moves in a month are leased rather than sold, compared with 19 percent for the industry. Subprime lending is higher, at 9 percent for GM, versus 6.5 percent for the industry. McNeil also points to aggressive luxury car incentives of 10 percent to 15 percent, though I’ve seen some pretty good Cadillac, Lincoln, and Lexus deals lately.
Mercedes, BMW, and Audi have kept their lineups fresh with lots of new product in the last couple of years. If Cadillac and Lincoln want to prove American automakers are more than commodity manufacturers, and disprove what Mercedes tried to do with Chrysler for nine years, the new ATS, XTS, MKZ and updated MKS had better be good.
It’s most important for Lincoln, as it hangs by a Blue Oval thread. Lincoln’s sales totaled just 6308 in April, off 12.8 percent April-over-April, but enough to keep Ford Motor second overall in sales, ahead of Toyota Motor by just 1998 units.

May 2012 Sales Auto Sales Continues to Lead — or Beat — the U.S. Economy

On the same day the U.S. Labor department released May job numbers that were worse than the dismal expectations of economists, Toyota said its May sales rose 87.3 percent. That’s not the man-bites-dog story, here. In May ’11, Toyota was suffering the effects of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami. It’s the domestic year-over-year gains of 30 percent for Chrysler, 12.6 percent for Ford Motor and 10.9 percent for General Motors that stands out as news. GM says its May sales are its best in 33 months.
Even Chrysler’s gain isn’t such big news compared with Ford and GM. The May ’11 Chrysler number was still sufficiently low that the substantial May ’12 gain seemed inevitable. Ford and GM posted healthy gains, at least when compared with those Labor department numbers; just 68,000 new jobs in the U.S. last month, with unemployment rising by one-tenth of a point, to 8.2 percent.
GM’s sales chief, Don Johnson (who leads up Chevrolet beginning next month) on Friday morning reiterated the company’s confidence that Americans will buy 14- to 14.5-million new cars and light trucks this calendar year. Few dispute the automotive sector is taking the lead in the slow, tenuous economic recovery. In the European Union, where the faltering economy threatens to bring down ours, only Volkswagen Group is making any money, leading sales on a sinking ship.
This raises an obvious question: who, in the U.S., is buying new cars and trucks? Even though unemployment remains too high, with the “real” number more than twice the official number, more than 80 percent of the nation is gainfully employed, and they’re replacing old vehicles. Ford says the average vehicle age in the U.S. fleet is 10.8 years old, with the average car age at 11.1 years old. Ford says its commercial fleet sales accounts for 14 percent of overall sales, equal to its number from May ’11. There’s strength in small commercial truck buyers, Ford says, which means that even if we’re not building new homes and office buildings, we’re buying new roofs and getting the A/C fixed.