October 2011 Sales: VW, Chrysler Up Big as Market Levels

It was a good month despite the numbers. Automakers said October’s Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) was the best of the year, at roughly 13.5 million including medium- and heavy-duty trucks, up from 13.2 million in September. Ford and GM cited somewhat encouraging job growth and looser credit for stronger sales.

It’s like malaise; only it looks pretty good next to 2008.

That means that seasonally, Octobers never are terribly good for selling cars and trucks. Another anomaly is that General Motors’ sales rose just 2 percent, though the automaker held on to its 19.4 percent market share, which is up roughly one point for the year to date.
This is the type of confusion car sales numbers cause. That 2 percent increase compares October 2011 with October 2010, of course, and SAAR numbers don’t really mean anything by the time you get actual annual numbers.
What the GM numbers mean is that GM has found its natural level, just under 20 percent share. Chevy sales were up slightly while every other division was off slightly. Buick, for one, ended a long streak of year-over-year gains as it sold down the last of its outdated products, the Lucerne, and built on the Enclave, LaCrosse and Regal. GM says Cadillac struggled amidst a strong product and marketing attack from BMW.
Other news outlets have trumpeted Chrysler Group’s “sensational” 27 percent sales hike, but that’s compared with a very lean 2010 number. Last year, Chrysler was slowly getting back on its feet and trying to hang on to a base number of sales as it got production levels back up. Most of its new or refreshed product was still a month or more off. A 27 percent hike looks good until you consider that Chrysler was the number-five automaker in October ’10, somehow keeping ahead of Honda last year.
That’s not to detract from Chrysler’s success this year. It has managed to reach a five-figure number for its midsize Chrysler 200, and Jeep and Ram pickup sales are strong. You’re getting a pretty good indication of how well the top six or seven automakers will do going forward, though Honda will continue to have shortages because of the Thai floods. Hyundai and Kia will continue to eat into competitors’ market share, and based on a strong start-of-production month for the VW Passat, I think that car could get into the top-five list of midsize cars. Which midsize will it dethrone?