November 2011 Sales: Healthy Gains as Industry Heads to a 13 Million Year

The U.S. first reached car and light truck sales of 15 million back in calendar 1965, when baby boomers bought boatloads of Ford Mustangs and their parents bought a million Chevy Impalas, Belairs and Biscaynes. That number remains elusive in today’s market. November 2011 sales totaled about 1 million — good for a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate of nearly 14 million. By the time December sales come in just after New Years, we’ll have bought nearly 13 million cars and light- and medium-duty trucks in 2011, which is at the low end of predictions General Motors, Ford, and most analysts made a year ago.
In the year-to-date, a few trends have emerged. First, the average middle-class buyer is sticking with midsize cars, and cross-shopping them against compact crossovers like the Honda CR-V, Toyota RAV4, Ford Escape and Chevrolet Equinox. That’s the talk over at Ford these days, and it makes sense. Middle-class Western Europeans scoop up four-door Volkswagen Golf hatchbacks because they offer versatility and enough space for a family of four, at a relatively low purchase price with decent fuel mileage (especially the diesels). We don’t buy hatchbacks here, unless they’re Mini Coopers or Toyota Priuses, but compact two-row crossovers offer all that versatility, enough room for a family of four and gas mileage that can seep into the low 30s if you get the four-cylinder and front-wheel-drive.
If you used a second mortgage to buy a Chevy Tahoe and a Toyota Camry five or eight years ago, or you’re coming off a three-year lease, you might find one of these compact CUVs the best combination to handle your needs, if not your wants. Of course, that means you’re also one of the middle-class survivors of the Great Recession who still has gainful employment, and you’re watching your monthly payment.
Second, luxury brands like Mercedes-Benz and Audi are having a spectacular year. Both reported their best November U.S. sales on record. They each have a number of new models to boost sales, and I suspect we’ll see some great numbers from BMW when the new 3 Series gets into U.S. showrooms.